Wednesday, May 4, 2011

the death of bin Laden, American gloating....and "enhanced interrogation"

One of the most frustrating things upon learning about Osama bin Laden's death was that it coincided with my busiest period at work, making it difficult to read all the available information and analyse it properly.
So while Americans are (not unsurprisingly) gloating over the news, and the Democrats in particular scoring points that their man Obama got him instead of Bush. In fact, no sooner was Obama flashing his birth certificate, he was then flashing Bin-Laden's death certificate around (as so eloquently described by Robert Fisk), the Democrats should probably temper their enthusiasm as we're already seeing reports emerge claiming that Guantánamo captives provided information that led to the eventual tracking down of bin Laden.
First of all we have no way of knowing if any of these claims are correct, but you can be certain that Republicans will try to claim that torture....sorry....enhanced interrogation led to his killing, thereby justifying the brutal technique.
But before we put this manhunt down to the success of torture techniques, a little perspective is required;
  • the location, Abbottabad, is a Pakistani military garrison town.
  • is 100 yards away from a Pakistani military academy.
  • The house was much larger than others in the area.
  • It had a 18 foot wall in front, topped by barbed wire.
  • The third floor had an 8 foot privacy wall.
  • All garbage was burned on site, not placed outside for collection. 
  • Entrance was controlled by two stainless steel gates. 
  • The house had no phone lines or internet attached to it, unusual for such an expensive home
The most basic of intelligence and investigation techniques should've led the Americans to this location, apparently bin-Laden had been there for years? So as I've mentioned before, torture and "anti terror" laws are no substitute for decent investigating, almost without exception you'll have a better chance of success, instead of chasing down false leads from a person who'll say anything to make the pain stop.
It should not be forgotten that we've been in the midst of a Muslim awakening in the middle east in recent times, ordinary people wanting to throw off autocracy, not institute an Arab caliphate which was the aim of  Bin-Laden. What he represented was rapidly diminishing in the eyes of those who count, Muslims. In fact up until the recent bombing in Morocco targeting tourists, Al Qaeda appeared to be rattled by the Arab uprisings.
So while the world's headlines are dominated by the death of bin Laden, I'm of the opinion that the Al Qaeda brand was on the slide, yet it remains to be seen whether the American military and policy makers turn a positive into a fiasco.......an option that can't be ruled out?

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